Defining Oneself

Standing before hundreds of bumper stickers, I was amazed when I realized that one can define one's identity, and broadcast it to others, quite so easily. For a small price, of course. But without years of personal contemplation, wading waist-deep in modern philosophy, ingesting alcohol and nicotin, or suicidal attempts.

Here, at the stickerguy's place near the bridge on Jalan Agus Salim, one can, for example, simply opt to define oneself as a Liverpool fan. A lover of Padi's music. A patron of HuGo's or Hard Rock Cafe. An enthusiast of Honda motorcycles, Arai helmets, Japanese anime, Fender guitars, or even Durex condoms.

An arabic calligraphy depicting the shape of Semar may indicate one's religious stance and ethnical background simultaneously. A crude yellow 'Hari gini masih pindah gigi' over black background declared one's partiality towards automatic motorcycles. One's decalaration of sexual preferences or general attitude toward sex, or to a certain extent, romance--if the two could somehow be linked together, are also readily available in explicit or implicit version.

The most interesting category, however, was the region of origin. In the spirit of Mie Ayam Wonogiri, Bakso Arema, and Warkop Putra Sunda, we now have bumper stickers declaring Cah (from Javanese bocah>>guy) Pekalongan, Cah Kutoarjo, Cah Banjarnegara, Putra Kuningan, and the likes. This is new. I have never seen this before. I have of course seen Arek Suroboyo or Budak Bandung. That's big cities. Cool cities. But to go to district level like Ngawi was quite something else. I mean, how many of you know where Delanggu is?

This got me thinking, which is a rare occasion. In this vast modernity jungle known as Jakarta, one could easily lost oneself in the face of sooo many cool identities one could conveniently assume. Why choose sticking with their origin, their roots? To identify oneself with Jakarta, or anything associated with it, is perhaps a surefire ticket to coolness. Hell, most of the times I enjoy hearing myself say 'I work in Jakarta' in a conversation with strangers residing in my place of origin. So again, why would in Jakarta some people proudly announce that they are not from Jakarta? My guess is that it's one of those 'being cool by remaining uncool' thing. I don't know. Maybe.

But anyway, if you ever saw a motorcyclist wearing a blue helmet with red 'Cah Cilacap' written on it, there's a good chance that it would be me.

The Burglar On The Roof

I think it was the New Year's Eve of 1995. Awan, Hindarto and I had just completed a long, long walk from Malioboro all the way to Bener, Tegalrejo. It was a splendid idea at the onset. First of all, it was, of course, the New Year' Eve. We actually had nothing to celebrate. In fact, all omens indicated that the new year would be grim in educational, financial, and romance fronts. But then again, it's the New Year's Eve. We just had to find festivity somewhere. The fact that we had no mode of transportation beside our own feet did not dampen our spirit. So we chipped in for a pack of Marlboro, a luxury compared to our usual fare of Djarum 76, and started off.

Five hours, a pack of Marlboro, and roughly ten kilometers later, tired and weary, we were back home. Koskosan (boarding house) Bu Dxxxx (population 12, when full). The sole proprietor, Bu Dxxxx, was a feisty elderly woman with sharp tongue and strong commanding aura. It had been known that she showed little compassion or mercy. Especially when the subject matter involves rent or female presence in her territory, which was not good for us either way.

You see, old-school Jogjakartan koskosans were run like big families. Parents would come at the beginning of their kid's stay and asked the proprietor to take care of their offspring. Pull their ears if you have to, they often said to the smiling and nodding proprietor. So, maintaining good behaviour was essential. Especially if your parents often visited. The proprietor might say something highly euphemisized like," Well, So and So is a good boy, really. But he seems to be out late quite often lately. Perhaps he is busy studying with his friends." Knowing that there was no chance in hell their boy was studying at night, let alone the suggestion that the poor sod was making the effort to visit friends for educational purposes, alarm bells would be ringing. Next thing you know, your allowance was cut in half, or worse.

Please excuse the detour. So anyway, the rest of the tenants were still out and none of us had enough sense to bring the key to the front door. The only other thinkable entry point was at the back, through the roof of the loo. So we went around the house, knocking on every window--except Bu Dxxxx's, to no avail. So the loo it was. Hindarto, with an unbelievable spirit of self-sacrifice, volunteered to climb in. The plan was, he would climb the 2-meter back wall, enter through a gaping hole at the roof of the loo, somehow came down, and open the front door for the rest of us, his two helpless best friends.

Without further ado, Hindarto took off his sandals and began climbing with surprising ease that rivaled any seasoned burglar. He was about to slid feet first into the hole when he was challenged by a commanding, "Sopo kuwi! (Who goes there!)". To say the he was startled out of his wits was a gross understatement. He lost his grip and slid further down. Now, half his body was visibly perching on the roof while his legs must have been hanging over the loo and whoever (although we have a pretty good idea who) was in there.Yet, Hindarto managed to compose himself (credit to him) and stammered back," Kula, Bu. Hindarto (It's me. Hindarto)"

I didn't catch the rest of what I imagined to be an extremely awkward exchange. By then, survival instinct shamelessly took over and Awan and I fled to nearby bushes, battling the overwhelming urge to laugh our heads off. Some friends we were. We did, eventually, drowned ourselves in an endless laughing fits once we were in a safe distance. The mental picture of Bu Dxxxx in a rather undignifying circumstance conversing with Hindarto's dangling legs was just too much. It was like a vintage scene from Warkop DKI movies--only better. It was for real and we were there to witness it.

We gave it fifteen minutes before we knocked on Hindarto's window, humbly begging to be let in. He was far from happy and didn't hold back on telling us exactly what he thought of the two us, which, for the purpose of venting out anger, were addressed in a series of rather unflattering names. Eventually, his golden heart shone through and he opened the front door for his two completely unworthy friends.

That night's episode became the koskosan's mythical legend. Immortalized in time. It was told over and over again in various occasion and courts. Over endless puffs of cigarettes and cups of coffees. To the newcomers as well as the seasoned old-timers. Late at night or while we're queuing for the bathroom. We all applaud the Brebesian boy's heroics. And that is why I wrote it here. So, you see, Hindarto, your tale is forever told.

My First Book Review Since 2001

Tugas dari kantor untuk meresensi buku Richard Vietor>>How Countries Compete: Strategy, Structure, and Government in the Global Economy
_____________________________________________________________

Di dunia yang semakin global, setiap negara harus berkompetisi jika ingin berkembang. Persaingan terbuka untuk memperebutkan pasar, teknologi, keahlian dan investasi merupakan satu-satunya jalan jika suatu negara ingin berkembang dan meningkatkan taraf hidup rakyatnya. Kenyataan ini menempatkan pemerintah pada posisi yang sangat penting, bahkan pada negara-negara yang ekonominya berbasis pasar. Bertolakbelakang dengan pandangan umum, Richard Vietor menegaskan bahwa pemerintahan yang dominan tidak identik dengan pengaruh buruk terhadap perekonomian yang berbasis pasar.

Berdasarkan pengalamannya sebagai staf pengajar di Harvard Business School dan konsultan di berbagai negara, Vietor menyajikan ulasan pendekatan-pendekatan pemerintah terhadap perkembangan ekonomi sebelas negara yang jika digabungkan jumlah penduduknya mencapai lebih dari tigaperempat penduduk dunia: Jepang, Singapura, China, India, Meksiko, Afrika Selatan, Saudi Arabia, Rusia, Italia, dan Amerika Serikat.

Ada tiga hal utama yang dibahas dalam buku ini. Pertama, tinjauan upaya negara-negara tersebut dalam mencapai tingkat pertumbuhan sampai sekarang. Kedua, proyeksi ekonomi negara-negara tersebut di masa depan. Ketiga, peran pemerintah masing-masing negara yang mempengaruhi perjalanan perkembangan ekonomi tersebut.

Sebagai latar belakang, bab pertama buku ini menjelaskan pentingnya strategi dan struktur. Dalam hal ini, Vietor menggarisbawahi peranan pemerintah dalam hal pembangunan ekonomi. Pemerintah, menurut Vietor, setidaknya harus mampu menjamin keamanan, penegakkan hukum, hak kepemilikan, dan risiko luar biasa. Selain itu pemerintah juga dituntut untuk mampu mengelola ekonomi makro dan kebijakan industri sebagai dampak dari kebijakan moneter yang telah dipilih.

Selanjutnya, pembahasan tiap negara dibagi menjadi tiga berdasarkan alur perkembangan ekonominya. Pembahasan bagian pertama meliputi pesatnya perkembangan ekonomi negara-negara Asia. Dengan bahasa yang sederhana, Vietor mengulas pertumbuhan ekonomi Jepang yang mencapai 10.1% selama tujuhbelas tahun berturut-turut. Selain itu, Singapura, China, dan India, menurut Vietor, merupakan contoh keberhasilan strategi ekonomi berbasis ekspor dan liberalisasi. Keberhasilan Singapura dinilai sebagai buah dari strategi pertumbuhan ekspor berbasis penanaman dana luar negeri yang ditunjang oleh kematangan institusi-institusi bentukan pemerintah dalam menerapkan kebijakan-kebijakan yang telah ditetapkan. Sementara itu, pertumbuhan ekonomi China yang luarbiasa terjadi dibawah kebijakan pembangunan yang pragmatis dengan titik berat pada liberalisasi ekonomi dengan tetap mempertahankan kekuasaan politik di pusat. Pembahasan tentang India menyoroti peralihan dari swadeshi menuju ke arah liberalisasi. Langkah-langkah privatisasi yang dibarengi dengan reformasi perpajakan dan peraturan merupakan upaya India untuk bersaing secara global.

Bagian kedua membahas sulitnya perkembangan ekonomi ditengah perubahan struktur. Pada bagian ini, Vietor menyajikan kasus Meksiko yang perkembangan ekonominya tersendat antara lain karena adanya perubahan struktur politik. Senada dengan Meksiko, Afrika Selatan digambarkan sedang berkuat memperbaiki kinerja ekonominya setelah mengalami transisi dari rezim apartheid. Sementara itu, modernisasi di Arab Saudi menjadi pekerjaan rumah yang tidak ringan bagi pemerintahan Raja Abdullah. Diversifikasi ekonomi dan upaya menggerakkan warga Saudi untuk berinvestasi di negeri sendiri merupakan tantangan besar karena berbenturan dengan institusi-institusi dan budaya yang ada. Di Rusia, kegagalan big-bang liberalization di tatanan masyarakat multi-etnis yang telah lama menganut aliran komunis garis keras membuat kekuasaan justru berpindah ke sejumlah kecil pemilik modal. Pemerintah kehilangan wibawanya di mata masyarakat.

Italia, Jepang, dan Amerika Serikat merupakan fokus bahasan pada bagian ketiga. Melalui Italia, Vietor menyoroti integrasi Eropa dan permasalahan yang dihadapinya seperti pertumbuhan, produktifitas, defisit, dan yang paling utama: daya saing ekonomi. Sementara itu, Jepang sedang mengalami kemandekan menyusul pertumbuhan ekonomi yang luar biasa pasca Perang Dunia ke Dua. Demikian halnya Amerika Serikat. Tingkat konsumsi berlebihan dan defisit anggaran merupakan salah satu masalah terbesar yang dihadapi oleh negeri Paman Sam ini. Benang merah yang bisa ditarik dari ketiga kasus di atas, menurut Vietor, adalah lambatnya perubahan institusional dan bergesernya demografi ke arah penduduk usia lanjut.

Di bagian akhir Vietor kembali menegaskan peran penting pemerintah. Tanpa menafikan pola perilaku individual dan pelaku bisnis, Vietor berargumen bahwa kebijakan-kebijakan yang diterapkan pemerintah jelas berpengaruh besar terhadap perkembangan ekonomi. Di Amerika Serikat, kebijakan pemerintah tentang keamanan nasional, kesehatan, dan perdagangan serta kurangnya perhatian dalam hal tabungan dan nilai tukar merupakan faktor-faktor utama penyebab defisitnya anggaran negara tersebut.

Vietor melengkapi pembahasannya dengan latar belakang sejarah, geografi dan sosial budaya. Hal ini sangat membantu untuk memahami, misalnya, pilihan strategi ekonomi negara-negara Asia yang lebih banyak bertumpu pada tabungan, investasi dan penanaman modal adalah karena secara kultural masyarakatnya menjunjung kebiasaan menabung dan bekerja keras. Namun ada beberapa hal, misalnya pembahasan tentang kaum Dalit—kasta terendah di India, yang tidak terlalu signifikan kaitannya dengan tema utama.

Upaya yang dilakukan Vietor untuk menarik garis lintas pertumbuhan suatu negara untuk memprediksi kondisi perekonomian dan iklim bisnis di masa depan cukup menarik. Sekilas terngiang kecaman yang dilontarkan Gede Prama dalam bukunya Inovasi Atau Mati yang menyatakan kesia-siaan upaya semacam ini. Tidak ada yang pernah menduga, menurut Prama, bahwa perekonomian Asia sedang berkembang pesat akan carut-marut pada tahun 1998. Vietor pun menyadari hal ini. Menurutnya, prediksi dapat berubah secara radikal karena perang, kelangkaan bahan pangan, pemberontakan politik, maupun bencana ekonomi. Namun jika faktor-faktor diatas tidak ada, maka seorang pengamat yang memahami alur perjalanan ekonomi suatu negara dapat membuat prediksi terukur jangka pendek tentang hal-hal seperti keseimbangan fiskal dan utang, nilai tukar dan suku bunga, dan tentang tabungan, investasi, dan pertumbuhan.

Pada pembahasan tentang prediksi perkembangan ekonomi negara-negara di atas, sekilas Vietor tampak kurang berani untuk membuat prediksi yang definitif. Ia lebih banyak bersandar pada skenario what if. Misalnya ketika berbicara tentang China, Vietor menyatakan bahwa jika China semakin menyesuaikan diri dengan ketentuan-ketentuan Word Trading Organization (WTO) dan melanjutkan upaya privatisasi sektor BUMN, maka perekenomian China akan terus berkembang pesat setidaknya untuk satu dekade ke depan. Sebaliknya, jika China tetap mengandalkan besarnya volume ekspor dan rendahnya nilai tukar mata uangnya, maka Amerika Serikat akan terpaksa mengenakan embargo perdagangan, sesuatu yang bisa menjadi bumerang bagi China.

Namun demikian, pada bagian akhir buku, Vietor menempatkan dirinya sebagai investor dan melakukan penilaian terhadap prospek ekonomi negara-negara tersebut secara tegas. India dan Singapura dinilai memiliki prospek yang cerah, sementara prospek China, Meksiko, dan Eropa harus ditanggapi dengan ekstra hati-hati.

Secara keseluruhan, buku ini merupakan kontribusi yang sangat baik dalam menambah wawasan tentang perekonomian dunia. Pembahasannya mencakup tema yang cukup luas tanpa harus kehilangan kedalaman dan fokus. Di sini dapat dilihat peran sentral pemerintah sebagai pendukung, bukan penghalang, pertumbuhan ekonomi di era pasar bebas. Menurut Vietor, “Governmental power is too often misconceived or misused. Yet still, economic growth requires good government.”

March Financial Outlook

I looked at this month's numbers and I found Deficit staring smugly back at me.

Following various increases in meat, cooking oil, and egg prices, the Minister of Logistics and Sustenance requested, no, insisted that her budget be adjusted accordingly. Similarly, policy changes in the Ministry of Transportation--the upgrading of KRL Ekonomi to KRL Ekonomi AC while retaining the former's schedule, inevitably triple the transportation budget. Hopefully, the Ministry of Vehicle Maintenance will stick to its budget considering its only asset, the Astrea Legenda 2002, is not due for tune up until next month. The Ministry of Children Welfare also receives a significantly increased budget after a compelling argument about the condition of the Republic of Bekasi Permai BL-15's only state-sponsored child's wardrobe.

This month also marks the first installment to be paid as a part of 36-month long foreign loan treaty signed last month which worth in excess of 20 million IDR in total. This comes on top of the existing foreign debts programs, which, if combined, absorbs nearly half of the fledgling republic's total revenue. Thankfully, one of these loan treaties is expiring late this year so the much-needed breathing space is within sight.

Oh, well, something tells me this small republic will manage. Moreover, after a couple of rounds of intensive physical lobbying last night, an exhausted Governess of the state's Central Bank assured me that she still holds 'adequate' reserve. Hmm, perhaps I should do some more lobbying to determine how much is 'adequate'. Maybe tonight.